The coronavirus can travel up to 8 meters. WHO: One million infected days in the world
It's April, and we're on the verge of a million SARS-CoV-2 infected. And these are only confirmed cases. Estimates for the United States, a new outbreak of global disease, are much darker. Experts today predict millions of infected and 200,000 deaths from the COVID-19 pathogen.
- Entering the fourth month since the beginning of this pandemic, I am deeply concerned about the rate of escalation of this global infection. In the last 5 weeks we have seen an exponential increase in infections in almost every country. The number of deaths has doubled in the last week. In the coming days we will reach 1 million confirmed cases," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organisation (WHO).
According to the WHO Director General, developing countries, where fewer patients are reported today, will need most external aid. He means African countries, from South and Central America. The hardest it will be to halt the progress of the pandemic and then to raise the economy of the shattered transition.
Serious problems will not miss the world's strongest economy, the United States. The official figures for April 2 are 200,000 patients. According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the members of the coronavirus crisis staff in the White House, there are even 200 thousand deaths.
- Every time we deal with prognostic models, we get the worst possible scenario and the best. After all, the truth is somewhere in the middle. I haven't seen a spreading model yet, where the worst-case scenario has come true. These are always overstated, Dr. Fauci said at CNN. Nevertheless, it is certain that there will be "millions of patients" in the US.
In turn, Dr Robyn Gershon, an epidemiologist from the NYU School of Global Public Health, in an interview with Yahoo News said that current estimates indicate that, including undiagnosed ones, there could already be as many as 2 million SARS-CoV-2 infected in the US.
Information about the possibility of the virus transmission in the air may also be underestimated. Current recommendations (including those for Poles who are necessarily queuing up, indicate 2 metres as an appropriate distance to ensure relative safety in relation to the transmission of the pathogen in water droplets secreted by a possible patient who does not show symptoms.
Meanwhile, according to Lydia Bourouiba from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a new coronavirus excreted from the patient's body during coughing can spread even 7-8 metres. Bourouiba, who deals with the dynamics of body fluids during transmission of pathogens, described her experiences in the journal of the American Medical Association.
The conclusion of her research is clear: current recommendations need to be changed because "the models used today are based on [simplified - ed.] theories from the 1930s". They do not take into account differences in physiology of individual patients and environmental variables such as temperature and humidity. Unfortunately, Lydia Bourouiba emphasizes, the same standards of evaluation are also applied to tests for effectiveness of personal protective equipment (masks, etc.) used by medical and epidemiological services. - We do not know what is a "safe distance". Generally speaking, you have to be as far away from each other as possible in closed rooms," she concludes.
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